March 25, 2007
This week in Israel….. Behind the news with Gershon Baskin
It has been quite some time since my last column under this title. Events, travel and shortage of staff in IPCRI has made it almost impossible to find the time to devote to this weekly article. Popular demand has brought me back to the commitment of writing this column once again.
Diplomatic fury
The new Palestinian government of national unity and the upcoming summit of the League of Arab States to be held on Tuesday and Wednesday of this week have sparked a new fury of Middle East diplomatic energy. On his first foreign journey, the new PA Minister of Foreign Affairs, Dr. Ziad Abu Amr has met with several high ranking diplomats in Europe and more are on their way to the region. The Government of Norway recognized the new government. UN Secretary General Ban Ki-Moon is making his first visit to the region and will be meeting with Palestinian President Abbas and Prime Minister Olmert, refraining at this point from meeting Hamas ministers. He was received at Ben Gurion airport by Minister of Defense Amir Peretz. Swedish Foreign Minister Carl Bildt is on his way and will also meet with both sides. Bildt is not likely to go as far as his Nordic neighbor, Norway, and grant full recognition to the new PA Government, but the Swedes, like many other Europeans will agree to deal directly with the non-Hamas members of the Government, including (and perhaps) especially with Finance Minister Salam Fayyad. Some of the Europeans may try to "test the waters" and to meet with some of the Hamas members as well, since the PA government is no longer defined as a Hamas government. American Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice is also on her way here and she too will engage with Abbas and Fayyad and perhaps others, but definitely not Hamas members.
The Riyadh summit
All of this diplomatic energy is betting on a positive outcome from the Riyadh summit later this week. Olmert and Livni have both come out with positive statements regarding the Arab Peace Initiative, while not completely endorsing the initiative, there is room to understand that Israel is interested. Israel`s main problem remains the wording of the paragraph on refugees which leaves the issue to be negotiated in accordance with UN Resolution 194 which has been translated into the "Right of Return". The head of the political office of the Ministry of Defense General (retired) Amos Gilead stated this morning that the right of return is equivalent to the destruction of Israel so, therefore, it cannot be a basis for negotiations. That is the typical Israeli logic on this issue. If, however, the Arab Peace Initiative clearly states that the issue will be "agreed" upon, indicating that there will be an negotiation, it is more than clear that the Arabs understand that Israel will not negotiate itself into oblivion. This paragraph even in its present wording should not deter the Israeli leaders from accepting the initiative as a basis for negotiations.
NY Times columnist Tom Friedman has reported that Olmert has met once again with someone from the Saudi leadership. There was no comment from the PM`s office. For several months now I have been writing to several of the highest ranking Saudi leaders suggesting that a senior representative of the Arab League should come to Israel and Palestine following the Summit to speak directly to the people from the podium of the Knesset and the Palestinian Parliament. We have requested that the Saudis help to raise funds for marketing the Arab Peace Initiative to the publics here. We have even proposed that a joint Palestinian-Israeli delegation come to the Summit to present a declaration signed by Israeli and Palestinian public personalities in support of the initiative. Unfortunately, all of our attempts to conduct a bilateral correspondences were not successful. Perhaps some of our ideas did get through, but we have no way of knowing for sure.
The Riyadh summit could provide the Government of Israel with the appropriate ladder to use in order to engage the new PA Government. If Palestine, a full member of the League of Arab States, votes in favor once again for the Arab Peace Initiative, the Government of Israel could state that the PA has in fact granted what I call "explicit conditional recognition of Israel", meaning that if Israel were to withdraw from the occupied territories, the Palestinian Authority would grant full recognition to Israel. In the meantime, and even prior to the Riyadh summit, it would be most helpful if the Government of Israel were to issue a declaration stating unequivocally that Israel recognizes the right of the Palestinian people to an independent state of their own on the basis of the 1967 borders next to the State of Israel. Israel should also recognize that according to the platform of the new Palestinian Government, President Abbas is fully empowered to negotiate a permanent status end-of-conflict agreement with Israel that would be brought to a referendum of the Palestinian people upon its conclusion.
Still no agenda
Despite the appalling popularity (or lack of popularity) rating of his government with PM Olmert in the front with some 98% of the public voicing no confidence, Olmert is still lacking a political agenda. This government cannot show one achievement since the elections. The only pro-active thing that the government has done is launch the war in Lebanon which in itself is enough reason to hope for its rapid fall. It seems that the main agenda of the government is to protect its members from prosecution and police investigation. One Minister after the other seems to be in front stage facing new allegations of wrong doing and corruption. There were great hopes and promises that the 17 th Knesset would be a lot better in quality than the one before it, yet this is proving to be far from the truth.
It is completely bewildering that Olmert does not use the remaining time he has in office to advance a political agenda. He can`t lose any popularity by advancing a plan that might actually do some good for Israel. We have long understood that Olmert is not an ideologue but a practical politician. He does not seem to be wedded to any particular political concept such as the "greater land of Israel" on which he was educated. He came to the electorate with a commitment to advance further withdrawals from the West Bank, mainly from a recognition of the demographic realities. Where is that agenda now? He was wise enough to understand that unilateralism is not the answer but instead of coming to the realization that the alternative to unilateral is negotiations, he has implemented a policy of "doing nothing". We don`t need leaders who`s policy is to do nothing.
One of the main problems that we face is that the front running alternative to Olmert is Netanyahu and in such a case, Olmert`s "do nothing" is better than Netanyahu`s "do a lot of harm" policies which are sure to come.
The paradox in all of this is that the Israeli public is silent. The public is far from satisfied with the present government but there is no real protest movement. The public supports policies that would advance negotiations and peace but at the same time voice their support for Netanyahu who is surely against negotiations and peace. Perhaps it is because of a total absence of any political alternative being presented to the public other than Netanyahu.
In the coming weeks we may very well be faced with a political upheaval as the Winoegrad Committee on the War in Lebanon begins to release its findings. Olmert may be forced to resign at that point, the question is whether that event would automatically result with new elections. It is possible that a new government could be formed under the leadership of Tzipi Livni, but it is yet to be known if she possesses the leadership qualities that are required to succeed. On the other hand, it seems quite clear that Olmert does not have those qualities so in the face of a choice between Livni and Netanyahu, Livni is without doubt better.
Winograd and Shimon Peres
The Winograd Committee, appointed by Olmert, is beginning to release minutes from its investigations. The Committee has even opened a web page, only in Hebrew for the time being ( http://www.vaadatwino.co.il/ ). The heavily censored testimony of Shimon Peres can be found there. Peres told the Commission that he was opposed to the war from the beginning. Peres believes it was a mistake to go to war, it was wrong to declare that the goals of the war were to bring home the kidnapped soldiers and that the decision making process for tactical military plans during the course of the war was also wrong. The only thing that Shimon Peres did not criticize was his own involvement in the whole process. Shimon Peres was not a passive by-stander. He is a member of this government. He is Deputy Prime Minister and the most experienced member of the Government. Shimon Peres has no shame. He should have been embarrassed to tell the Committee that he was opposed to the war and yet voted in favor. Shimon Peres must go home. He has no place in this government or in any government. He has no place in the President`s home where he would like to be. Go home Shimon Peres. Write your books, give your lectures, speak about peace. Tell us about the new Middle East. But go home! Enough Shimon Peres in our lives.
Gershon Baskin is the Co-CEO of IPCRI, the Israel/Palestine Center for Research and Information.
