By Amos Harel and Avi Issacharoff - Haaretz - 08/08/2006
The death of 15 Israelis from Katyushas on Sunday in Kfar Giladi and Haifa moves the ground operation of the Israel Defense Forces in an expected direction: deeper into Lebanon.
Senior officers said it seemed that after Prime Minister Ehud Olmert`s visit to the Northern Command headquarters Monday, authorization would be given to expand the ground operation at least to the Litani River. But then came Hezbollah`s surprising agreement to the deployment of 15,000 soldiers of the Lebanese army in the south.
It is not clear how the pro-Syrian president Emile Lahoud will fulfill his responsibility in this regard, or whether the deployment will be part of Resolution 1559, which calls for the disarming of Hezbollah.
The Lebanese government`s dramatic declaration was preceded by Lebanese Prime Minister Fouad Siniora`s speech at the Arab foreign ministers` conference in Beirut where he burst into tears at the "40 Lebanese civilians" (turned out to be considerably less) who were supposedly killed by Israel.
Siniora might have been weeping because the war may well place his country into the hands of Syria and Iran once again.
The Lebanese initiative will improve Beirut`s bargaining position in demanding changes to the U.S.-France draft proposal. Israel may find a real achievement in the deployment - compliance with its original demand before the idea of the multinational force surfaced.
If there is no change in the next 24 hours, as a result of Siniora`s initiative and international involvement, the army will get the green light to advance to the Litani River and to some points beyond.
Israel is faring better against middle- and long-range rockets than the Katyushas. The moment Hezbollah fires a rocket, chances are good the IDF will locate and destroy the launcher, although Hezbollah is using them sparingly.
Hezbollah still has about 10,000 Katyushas, or 50 days` worth, fired mostly from the area south of Litani. IDF intelligence says the ground incursion is necessary to strike at the Katyushas. The turning point, intelligence says, will come with a mass ground operation to the Litani.
