by George Giacaman - Bitterlemons - April 16, 2007
There may still be some difficult negotiations ahead. The internal politics on both the Palestinian and Israeli sides will be a hindrance. Nevertheless, one should expect that, perhaps sooner rather than later, there will a deal to exchange Palestinian political prisoners for the Israeli soldier, Gilad Shalit.
On the Palestinian side the release of Palestinian political prisoners is a top priority among the general public. Over 10,000 prisoners languish in Israeli jails, and their families and friends are an influential lobby pressuring the Palestinian government. President Mahmoud Abbas` inability to bring about the release of prisoners after his election in January 2005 undermined the perception of his effectiveness among a majority of Palestinians.
From an Israeli point of view, there are several precedents for prisoner exchanges, both Palestinian and Lebanese. Families of captive soldiers have also frequently worked as effective lobbies pressuring the government. The case of Ron Arad has haunted successive Israeli governments.
Still, prisoner exchanges often fall prey to internal politics. The present Israeli government is widely seen as weak, and parties in the opposition are lurking to pounce at any move, including meeting Palestinian demands for an exchange.
The problem is, as one Israeli writer said recently albeit in a different context, when Israel is strong, it has no need to make peaceful gestures, and when it is weak it lacks the ability to do so. As a result, Palestinians have concluded that only by capturing soldiers can they secure the release of their prisoners.
Look at the period following the election of Abbas. For a whole year, until parliamentary elections in January 2006, the Israeli government had an opportunity to "bolster" Abbas` standing. Israel was even urged to do so by the US administration. A release of prisoners would have been a very effective move in this direction. But it was only after Hamas` victory in the PLC elections that the Israeli government entertained the idea of releasing imprisoned Fateh leader Marwan Barghouti. The problem the Israeli government faces now is how to do so without giving victory to Hamas or leaving Barghouti indebted to Hamas rather than Abbas.
From a broader regional and international perspective, the exchange of prisoners is an important first step in a series of moves that may pave the way for a possible resumption of a political process. There is no certainty that such a process will start, but it is certain that a political process will not start without a conducive atmosphere. Such an atmosphere would almost certainly need to include an exchange of prisoners and a mutual ceasefire in Gaza as well as the West Bank.
At least, this is the Palestinian understanding of the EU statement issued shortly after the end of the Arab summit in Riyadh last month. The EU`s statement emphasized that it will be judging the performance of the new Palestinian government on the basis of its deeds. This is a realignment of position, compared to earlier statements where only "words" were mentioned, that is, the Palestinian government`s acceptance of the three conditions of the Quartet. There is therefore a clear interest on the part of the Palestinian Authority headed by Abbas to expedite the exchange in order to lay the ground for a possible political process.
I say "possible" because the Israeli government has so far refused to discuss "final status" issues, such as Jerusalem, borders and refugees, and has not accepted the Arab Peace Initiative, extended again at the summit in Riyadh. The Oslo process failed because these issues were not finalized at the beginning and instead became a victim of the balance of forces between the two sides.
In spite of its weak government, Israel as a state is strong. Could it be that because it is strong, it has no need for peace?- Published 16/4/2007 bitterlemons.org
George Giacaman is a political analyst and teaches in the MA Program in Democracy and Human Rights at Birzeit University.
