by Ghassan Khatib - Bitterlemons - July 24, 2006

In spite of the fact that the major escalation between Israel and Hamas in the Gaza Strip coincided with the even more dramatic escalation between Israel and Hizballah, and despite the fact that Hizballah and Hamas are both Islamic parties, there is no direct connection between the developments on the two fronts.
The developments in Gaza between Israel and the Palestinians are an extension of confrontations that have been taking place for decades in the context of the occupation and its practices on the one hand and the resistance to that occupation on the other. The events in Gaza were thus motivated by local dynamics.

Israel, who claimed to have left Gaza, did not leave it alone. Israel kept Gaza under a strict and severe siege that was strangling it and turning the Strip into a huge prison. The disengagement of Gaza from the West Bank and the rest of the world caused humanitarian suffering and economic deterioration that raised the number of people living in poverty, according to recent UN statistics, to 68 percent, and unemployment before the end of this year, according to World Bank projections, to more than 40 percent.

Added to this were Israeli policies that left the elected Palestinian government paralyzed and unable even to pay salaries as a result of the decision to withhold the monies Israel collects on behalf of the Palestinian Authority in the form of taxes on products imported into the Palestinian areas, products that can only go through borders controlled by Israel.

In other words, the Israeli occupation and the resistance to it, which has been the cause of the ongoing violence between the two sides since 1967, are enough to explain the recent escalation in Gaza, including the capture of an Israeli soldier, which came after Israel moved from assassinating individuals to assassinating whole families.

The growing tension and escalating confrontations in Gaza, as well as Israeli intentions for a unilateral step in the West Bank, brought about Egyptian and Jordanian attention and involvement. But they could not attract any significant attention from any other country or people in the region or beyond.

The developments on the Israeli-Lebanese front were not motivated by a Palestinian agenda. In fact, although both Hamas and Hizballah are classified as political Islamist parties, there is minimal connection and coordination between them. One of the factors indicating this are the current negotiations, encouraged by Hamas, to reach a package deal with Israel that will include a ceasefire and exchange of prisoners. This comes in spite of the significant escalation between Israel and Lebanon.

It has been tempting to analysts and journalists to draw a linkage between Tehran and Gaza through Syria and Lebanon. Many US-oriented analysts wanted to encourage the notion of such a linkage in order to justify the actions either of the US or Israel to break or interrupt that linkage. But there has been no substantial proof of this argument.

That`s not to say Iran is not exercising a growing strategic influence in the region. But this cannot be attributed to a Palestinian linkage. It can, however, be attributed to the failure of the American strategy in Iraq, which has become a gateway for Iran to the region.

By the same token, arguing that there is no linkage between the events in Gaza and in Lebanon does not also mean there isn`t a dramatic increase in the popularity of both Iran and Hizballah in the whole region, including in Palestine. In fact, the majority of the people of the region blames Israel and the US for their miseries, look at both as the enemy, and is willing to support any force that is battling this enemy. That was correct when the forces confronting Israel and the US were nationalists and leftists, and it is correct now that these forces are Islamist, be they Shi`ite or Sunni.

The increase in tension between Iran and the US is playing into the hands of Iran because it is increasing its popularity, not to mention its revenue as a result of the increase in oil prices with every new crisis. And the continuing suffering of the Palestinian people and the injustice they are living are significant factors in this hostile feeling toward the US and Israel.

It has always been correct to argue that one important way of defusing and neutralizing popular hostility toward the US and Israel, would be by putting an end to the Israeli occupation and allowing Palestinians to live in peace, independence and prosperity. In the meantime, the Palestinian cause will remain an instrument used to generate popularity for some, along with public hostility toward the West, especially the US.- Published 24/7/2006 © bitterlemons.org

Ghassan Khatib is coeditor of the bitterlemons family of internet publications. He is the former Palestinian Authority minister of planning, and has been a political analyst and media contact for many years.