October 24, 2006
This week in Israel….. Behind the news with Gershon Baskin
Ehud Olmert and Avigdor Leiberman agreed yesterday and signed a deal that will bring Yisrael Beitenu and its 11 seats into the coalition. Leiberman, demonstrating a rare breed of political altruism, demanded only one seat in the government, despite the fact that he is entitled to considerably more given his 11 seats. Leiberman will hold the position of Deputy Prime Minister and Minister for Strategic Planning – a kind of strategic Czar coordinating the various military-security related planning bodies – a one-man National Strategic Council. Lieberman’s actions go against the general trend of his supporters in the public who would prefer to see Yisrael Beitenu continuing its alliance with the right-wing forces of the opposition to pull down the government. Leiberman claims that he is acting out of the national security interests of the country and not the narrow political interests of his party. Leiberman is a well known fascist, in the truest sense of the word – the State before everything else. Leiberman is also a well-known racist and has proposed “strategic” plans to change the borders of the State in order to remove hundreds of thousands of Israeli citizens who are Palestinian Arabs from Israel. It is a dark day for Israel when someone like Leiberman sits around the Cabinet table – and it is not the first time that he is there.
Three Labour Party Ministers, Benyamin Ben Eliezer, Shalom Simchon, and the “wish-washy” Yitzhak Herzog are all in favor of Yisrael Beitenu joining the coalition. Personally, I am in favor of them joining Yisrael Beitenu. The most vocal Labourite against Leiberman is Ofer Pines-Paz. Peretz’s opponents seem to vacillateon the issue depending on which way the wind is blowing. Amir Peretz has also stated in public that he is opposed to Leiberman joining the coalition and that he would vote against it. But the Labour party is so torn up from within that there is no chance at all for it to decide to leave the government. Olmert knows that Peretz’s threats of taking Labour out of the government are empty and he can continue to manipulate Peretz as he sees fit. Peretz has no control of the Labour party which seems to be completely devoid of leadership. The constant in-battling between the various forces has rendered the Labour party to act as ship in stormy waters with no captain or navigator, with a possible mutiny in the makings.
Peretz-Meretz
Some Labourites, including Amir Peretz have been stating that the time has come for Labour and Meretz to merge. Meretz MK Avshalom Vilan (Abu) wrote last week that Meretz and Labour should join forces because the differences between mainstream Meretz and mainstream Labour are nil. In fact, it is true that a good number of Labour MK’s could feel quite at home in Meretz and visa versa. Such a merge would probably force some of the more right-wing Labourites to leave to Kadima. But Yossi Beilen and Zahava Galon have come out strongly against the merge. Beilen and Galon said that Meretz would not join a government that has no peace agenda and a government that is continuing to build settlements and refuses to remove the illegal outposts. As long as Labour continues to try to imitate its right-wing sister party, Kadima, there remains a need for a strong left-wing party. The problem is that Meretz is far from strong and it too is suffering from too much internal intrigues and conflicts.
Speaking about settlements….
General Baruch Spiegel, appointed two years ago has resigned. Spiegel had been appointed to coordinate the Ministry of Defense and the army’s activities in two key areas – data collection on settlements and outposts in order to monitor their removal and to prevent expansion, along the lines of Israel’s Road Map commitments, and the implementation of the access and movement agreements facilitated by Secretary of State Rice. Spiegel’s resignation comes as no surprise. Over the past 6 months Speigel has said in private conversations that the data that he discovered regarding the settlements and outposts makes the Talia Sasson report look obsolete. Settlement and outpost expansion go far beyond what anyone in the Israeli government was ever willing to admit. Spiegel discovered a systematic pattern of intentionally turning a blind eye to the continued expansion of settlements for years. He discovered complicity and cooperation from key people in the Civil Administration and the army who enable the settlers to act with complete immunity, systematically working against the law without any fear of being stopped. Settlements have continued to be built on private Palestinian lands, explicitly against the orders of the Government and the Courts. The settlers maintain a system of control beyond the wildest imagination and Speigel, as quoted in private discussions, said that the State of Israel has no real desire or agenda to undo what has been done.
Spiegel also failed in creating the possibilities for more open Palestinian movement, both within the West Bank and from the West Bank to the world. Despite government promises to the United States, even directly to President Bush, various functionaries in the Defense Ministry, the army and the GSS have continuously prevented the implementation of recommendations made by Spiegel.
When Amir Peretz was appointed to the Ministry of Defense, there was a hope, at least by me, apparently naively, that people like Spiegel would be strengthened and that the settlers would finally have to face the rule of law. That hope was not met. Peretz’s failures as Minister of Defense are one of the main factors leading to the demise of any chances of a renewed peace process. This all raises a very big question about who is in charge here – who really rules Israel?
The campaign for re-entry
At the urging of IPCRI, the Interior Committee of the Knesset will hold a public hearing on the issue of Palestinian residents of the territories who hold foreign passports and are being denied the right to remain in their homes. Two members of Knesset enlisted by IPCRI, Ephraim Sneh (Labour party faction leader) and Avigdor Yitzhaki (Kadima faction leader and coalition whip) have agreed to work on resolving this issue. The best solution is for the Palestinian Ministry of Interior to have to right to issue these Palestinian residents of the territories identity cards and Palestinian passports. That would be a recognition of reality and would end the charade of issuing them tourist visas. Thousands of people have been living in the territories for years having to leave the area every three months to renew their visas. They have built homes, families and businesses. They overwhelmingly represent moderate political views and have been central in supporting peace with Israel. The issue also relates to thousands of non-Palestinian foreign citizens who are spouses of Palestinian residents of the territories, they too are being denied the right of re-entry into the territories and over the past months their families have been torn apart by this harsh policy of denying them the right to live in their homes. This is not an issue of “right of return” – these people are not asking to be residents of the State of Israel. They live in Palestine and they wish to continue to live there. IPCRI is taking a key role in leading the behind the scenes aspects of the campaign and will continue to do so until a positive resolution is found and implemented.
Gaza
Israel continues to attack Gaza and Palestinians continue to be killed. More than 300 have been killed since the kidnapping of Gilead Shalit on June 25. This past week Israel retook control of the Philadephi corridor along the Gaza-Egypt border. Some 13 tunnels were discovered by the IDF used by Palestinians for smuggling. Most of what is smuggled in those tunnels are cheap goods that are sold throughout Gaza. But the tunnels are also used for smuggling weapons. The black market for weapons in Gaza is flooded because prices have dropped to their all-time lowest levels. This is one of the tools used by experts to judge the kind of weapons and their quantities smuggled into Gaza. Gazans have three main motivations for smuggling weapons – one is the complete lack of the rule of law – Gaza is a jungle where the rules of the jungle apply, every person for themselves. Two – there is a sense that the civil strife between Hamas and Fatah may emerge into a full fledged civil war and arms are being collected for that possibilities. Three – the war in Lebanon and the success of the Hizbollah facing the IDF has inspired many Gazans to believe that they too should become more like Hizbollah and according to Israeli intelligence, they are making great efforts to smuggle more sophisticated weapons into Gaza.
In 1995 a Palestinian General in Gaza asked to meet with me. He told me then that there more than 35 tunnels operating in Rafah and that I should inform Prime Minister Rabin. I asked him “why are you telling me this?” He said “weapons and explosives are being smuggled into Gaza and in the end of the day; it will all explode in our face!” How right he was. In light of this reality there is really very little that Israel can do, at least from a military perspective. Israel could recapture Gaza and could reoccupy it, but there is no sustainability in this plan. Some have suggested that Israel should go in for several months, sweep through every home and collect every weapon around. This is possible and perhaps even probable, but there will be a significant amount of casualties to Israeli forces as well. It seems to me that Israel is planning for this kind of operation and is probably waiting to see the outcome of the recently reported progress in the negotiations for the release of Shalit. If those negotiations do not produce any real results in the coming weeks, I would put my money on a military operation in Gaza.
One small note on behind the scenes in Palestine
In the face of the continued stale-mate between Hamas and Fatah, both sides are weighing their options. This has been widely reported so I will not elaborate. One development, not reported at all, is that some senior personalities in Hamas have begun to develop some new ideas for a political process with Israel. The main idea being developed is a plan that would separate the 1967 issues from the 1948 ones, meaning a negotiation for the end of the occupation of the 1967 lands and then a much longer period of time to negotiate the issues concerning other final status issues and the end of conflict. The proposal being developed relates to the use of the Islamic notion of hudna – ceasefire – a short-term hudna for negotiating the end of the occupation and then a second longer-term hudna to immediately follow in order to negotiate over a long period of time issues concerning peace. These are very interesting developments within Hamas and warrant close observation as they unfold.
Gershon Baskin is the Co-CEO of IPCRI – the Israel/Palestine Center for Research and Information.
