Peace Index: January 2006
Prof. Ephraim Yaar and Prof. Tamar Hermann
Tami Steinmetz Center for Peace Research
Unlike the reactions of Israeli and foreign leaders, the Hamas victory does not seem to have created for the Jewish public a sense of emergency that would warrant, for example, postponing the elections or changing one`s voting intentions. Nor does the public show any uniform pattern in assessing the new situation. Indeed, a majority believes that Hamas`s victory constitutes an existential danger to Israel, and a large majority also believes that unlike the PLO, there is no chance that Hamas will eventually recognize Israel. Moreover, there is agreement across the spectrum that the chances of reaching a peace agreement with a Palestinian government headed by Hamas are very small or nil. At the same time, about half the public thinks Hamas will now moderate its involvement in terror attacks, and close to half say it is now the Palestinian people`s legitimate representative in every way and that negotiations should be conducted even with a Palestinian government that it forms, despite the meager chances of such negotiations leading to peace. However, apparently to avoid the risks and ensure that Israel is in no way dependent on a Hamas government, there is broad support for the view that in light of Hamas`s victory, Israel should determine its fate and its borders on its own by rapidly completing the separation fence.
Those are the main findings of the Peace Index survey that was carried out from Monday to Wednesday, January 30-February 1, 2006.
To the question: "In light of Hamas`s victory in the Palestinian elections, is there a need, in your view, to change the date of the Israeli elections until the situation is clearer?," an overwhelming majority of 86% of the Jewish interviewees replied that there is no need, 9% said there is a need, and the rest did not know. Among the few who thought the Israeli elections should be postponed, 43% support establishing a National Unity Government while 36% favor retaining the current coalition as a caretaker government. Similarly, a majority of 79% said they have no intention to change their vote in the upcoming elections because of Hamas`s victory, 8% responded that they are considering the possibility, and 13% did not know. Given the Jewish public`s historical tendency to support national unity governments, especially in emergency situations like the period before the Six Day War or during the Second Intifada, the fact that few currently support such a step indicates that the Hamas triumph is not perceived as an immediate threat.
The broad agreement on this issue does not mean the Jewish public is not worried by Hamas`s rise to power. Fifty-five percent agree that Hamas`s victory constitutes an existential danger to the state of Israel while 38% disagree (7% do not know). A larger majority (69%) thinks that unlike the PLO`s agreement in the framework of the Oslo accords to cancel the item in its charter calling for Israel`s destruction, the chances that Hamas will take a similar step and ultimately recognize Israel`s right to exist are very small or nonexistent (24% believe there is a chance and 7% do not know).
Given these views, it is no wonder that only a tiny minority—12%—believe that negotiations between Israel and a Hamas-led government could lead to a lasting peace agreement, while 83% do not see such a possibility. Indeed, as past Peace Index surveys have shown, the Jewish public was not particularly optimistic about the chances of reaching a peace agreement with the Palestinians even before the recent PA elections. The Hamas win, however, lowered the optimism level even further. During October-December 2005, the rate of those not believing that negotiations with the PA government would lead to a lasting peace came to 50%-60%; today, as noted, it stands at 83%. Here it is interesting that a large majority of the Jewish public (65.5%) does not think the fact that Hamas is by nature a religious movement means rabbis and other Jewish religious figures should be included in contacts with it. Only 29% say that under the present circumstances there is a place for their participation, and 5% do not know. Indeed, a segmentation of the public`s positions on this question by level of religiosity shows evenly split views even among the religious, while a large majority of the secular, traditional, and even ultra-Orthodox do not see any need to include Jewish religious figures in contacts with Hamas.
A further effect of the Hamas victory on the Jewish public`s position is the decline we see in this month`s survey, compared to the previous month`s measurement, in the rate of supporters of an independent Palestinian state. Last month 67% favored it; this month, 55%.
However, despite the pessimistic view of future relations with the Palestinians under a Hamas-led government, the Jewish public is not reacting uniformly to the new situation or without making distinctions. Forty percent agree that because Hamas won by a democratic vote, the government it forms will be the agreed and legitimate representative of the Palestinian people in every way, while 44% disagree. About half the public (46%) also expects Hamas will now moderate its involvement in terror attacks against Israel, compared to 45% who do not think so. Moreover, despite the broad consensus that there is no real chance of reaching a peace agreement with a government headed by Hamas, 43% say Israel should conduct political negotiations with the government it sets up, while 53% say otherwise. In other words, a considerable part of the Jewish public believes at this point in trying to talk to Hamas despite the extremely low chances of a lasting peace agreement.
As expected, there is a quite close link between views on Hamas`s likely policy regarding terrorism and on the question of holding political negotiations with it. Among those who believe Hamas will moderate its involvement in terror attacks, 56% favor negotiations and 37% oppose them; among those who do not expect a more moderate Hamas, only 29% support negotiations and 67% are against. A segmentation of rates of support for negotiations by voting intentions shows considerable gaps between the political camps, in this order: among those saying they will vote for Meretz, 100% favor negotiating with a Hamas-led government; among those who say they will vote for Labor, 64%; Kadima, 48%; Likud, 30%; Shas, 28%; and the National Union, 17%.
One of the questions currently on the agenda is whether Israel should or should not transfer to the PA the tax revenues it collects for it, as it has done so far. It turns out that unlike the Israeli government`s position as reported in the media, a large majority of the public (69%) opposes releasing the funds with only 22% supporting it. On the question, though, of whether, should the United States and other contributing countries end their support to the PA if Hamas fails to annul the clause in its charter calling for Israel`s destruction, Hamas will turn to other sources of funding such as Iran, the opinions are more divided: 45% think this possibility should not be taken into account, 38% say it should be.
Apart, though, from the controversial questions on what policy to take toward a Hamas-led government, there is broad support (75.5%) in the Jewish public for the statement that, in light of its victory, "Israel should determine its fate and its borders on its own by rapidly completing the building of the separation fence" (18% oppose this stance and the rest do not know). A segmentation of the responses by voting intentions reveals that except for Meretz voters, among whom 40% favor the statement and 60% oppose it, voters for the other large parties, including Labor, support it by a large majority.
On certain issues related to Hamas`s victory, the Arab public`s positions are a "mirror image" of those of the Jewish public: for example, unlike the distribution of opinions on this issue in the Jewish public, a majority of the Arab public (67%) thinks Hamas`s victory does not entail an existential threat to Israel. And on the question of transferring money from Israel to the PA, 68% of the Arab public favor doing so as planned. But as for the chances that the Hamas government and the Israeli government will be able to reach a lasting peace agreement, among the Arabs, too, a majority -- albeit smaller than among the Jews -- of 56% see the likelihood as small. And on the issue of including religious figures in negotiations between Israel and Hamas, an overwhelming majority—72%—of the Arab public, too, opposes this.
Oslo Index: general sample -- 36.5 (Jewish sample -- 33.8)
The Peace Index Project is conducted at the Tami Steinmetz Center for Peace Research and the Evens Program in Mediation and Conflict Resolution of Tel Aviv University, headed by Prof. Ephraim Yaar and Prof. Tamar Hermann. The telephone interviews were conducted by the B. I. Cohen Institute of Tel Aviv University during January 30-February 1, 2006, and included 582 interviewees who represent the adult Jewish and Arab population of Israel (including the territories and the kibbutzim). The sampling error for a sample of this size is about 4.5% in each direction.
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