by Ali Jarbawi - Bitterlemons - March 19, 2007
 

Finally, after a long wait and tough discussions before and after the Mecca agreement, the Palestinian national unity government has been formed. It is a broad-based coalition government that primarily includes Hamas and Fateh but also representatives from other Palestinian factions.

The formation came basically as a response to pressing internal Palestinian considerations more than escalating external pressures and demands. Over the past year, the Palestinians have endured a difficult crisis that brought them to the brink of a devastating civil war. This was in addition to being subjected to a severe and suffocating political and economic siege imposed by Israel and the international community.

That siege came because after years of a political process during which the Palestinians were coerced into accepting a number of Israeli conditions, Hamas won the Legislative Council elections and formed a government on the basis of a refusal to recognize Israel or any agreement signed with it. Rather, it called for armed resistance against it.

This raised the ire of Israel and its western allies, the United States in particular. A harsh siege was imposed on the Hamas government with the aim of changing its political platform. The impact of that siege was magnified as a result of the internal strife between the Hamas government and members and supporters of Fateh.

Meanwhile, the civil servants strike did not just harm the public interest by closing schools, hospitals and other public institutions, it served to escalate the tension between armed elements in Fateh and Hamas. Armed clashes between the two sides ensued, which only worsened with time until they threatened open armed struggle. The situation reached a crossroads: either Hamas would be coerced into entering a political settlement according to Israeli conditions--which have also become international conditions--or it would be ousted from power by external pressures and internal strife.

The course of events, however, did not proceed as Israel and its allies hoped it would. Neither scenario materialized. Instead, chaos prevailed in the occupied Palestinian territories and the feelings of frustration and subjugation increased among Palestinians. As a result, they rallied around the Hamas government.

In addition, Arab unease over events rose, especially as they were coupled with other burning issues in the region concerning Iraq, Iranian nuclear ambitions and the Syrian-Lebanese file. It became imperative to address the Palestinian situation, thus resulting in Arab intervention. The climax was the signing of the Mecca agreement that led to the formation of the Palestinian national unity government and a breakthrough in the Palestinian arena.

This breakthrough was unwanted by the Israelis. Israel has always promoted instability on the internal Palestinian front. It benefits from a lack of Palestinian consensus on a unified strategy to confront Israel on the one hand, and uses this lack of agreement as a pretext for claiming that there is no Palestinian partner with whom to negotiate, on the other. This way, Israel can continue its comfortable occupation of the Palestinians and its unilateral measures aimed at imposing the settlement it wants on the Palestinians.

The formation of the Palestinian national government strikes at the heart of Israel`s plans. To escape a looming civil war, Hamas and Fateh were forced to agree on a mutual partnership, even if on the lowest common denominators. Israel does not want to see the positive aspects of this agreement, most importantly that Hamas has budged from its previous position and now accepts the establishment of a Palestinian state on the borders of June 4, 1967 and agrees to hand over negotiations with Israel to the PLO, represented by its chairman, Mahmoud Abbas.

This is a substantial change in Hamas` position. But Israel is paying it no heed, because it does not want a political settlement based on the principle of a complete end to the occupation and the establishment of an independent and sovereign Palestinian state on all occupied land, in addition to a solution to the refugee issue according to international resolutions.

This is why Israel expressed its dissatisfaction with the Mecca agreement and later with the formation of the national unity government, announcing it would not recognize this government or deal with it if it did not accept the Quartet conditions--recognition of Israel and agreements signed with it in addition to the renunciation of "terror". Israel even added the condition of releasing the captive Israeli prisoner Gilad Shalit.

Indeed, since the signing of the Mecca agreement, Israel has been waging a vigorous campaign at the international level to turn western capitals against the Palestinians and their government. Now that the government has been formed, Israel has doubled its efforts and wants to force the Quartet parties to abide by its understanding of the three conditions. In other words, Israel does not want to allow the parties of the Quartet to interpret their conditions in the manner they feel appropriate and necessary to move the political process forward. Rather, Israel wants to force them to abide by the Israeli interpretation of their conditions.

Why all this pressure from Israel? Israel feels it may now be subjected to pressures it does not want to face. In past months, there have been changes in the overall atmosphere. Because of the consequences of its blunders in Iraq, the American administration has been subjected to internal and external pressures to reconsider its policy in the Middle East. At the center of this pressure, which is growing because of the possible ramifications of Iran`s emergence at the regional level, is the insistence of Arab countries allied with the US on the necessity to resolve the Palestinian issue according to the Arab peace initiative.

In addition, Russia is resisting the America`s tyrannical grasp over international policy, especially in the Middle East. We should also not forget the EU`s ambition for a more effective role in this region given its proximity. Due to all these factors, there are tangible Arab and international ambitions to find a solution to the conflict based on the Arab peace initiative of 2002. The existence of a Palestinian national unity government and internal Palestinian harmony reinforces and strengthens this trend.

Israel will continue to pressure the American administration and, directly and through the US, the Quartet not to deal with the Palestinian government. By doing so, Israel is hoping to divert attention away from its obstinacy and blame the Palestinians. Israel also aims to pressure Arab countries to amend the Arab peace initiative to strip it of its fundamental content, i.e., a complete withdrawal from the occupied Palestinian territories and the need to reach a solution to the refugee problem according to UN Resolution 194. Israel will do everything necessary to achieve this goal, including waging a wide-scale military campaign in the Gaza Strip.

Israel`s success or failure in its current endeavors depends on the ability of the Palestinian government and the upcoming Arab summit to stand firm. If the Palestinians and the Arabs succeed in holding on to the Arab peace initiative as it is, and if the Arabs lift the siege on the Palestinian government, the Israeli pressure will fail and be directed toward Israel instead.

However, if the Palestinian and Arab position shows any sign of weakness, the situation will lean toward a settlement on Israeli terms. The result of that will be a Palestinian statelet inside the wall, divided between the West Bank and Gaza, without the right of return for refugees. That will be the ultimate disaster. - Published 19/3/2007 © bitterlemons.org

Ali Jarbawi is a professor of political science at Birzeit University.