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   This Week in Israel - Behind the Israeli News - By Gershon Baskin

The Winograd Commission

Monday, April 30, 2007
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New hopes old problems

Tuesday, April 17, 2007
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To recognize or not to recognize?

Friday, April 06, 2007
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We`re Back!

March 25, 2007
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A new year, new predictions

January 2, 2007
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Winds of Change

December 3, 2006
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The Cease fire

November 28, 2006
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Lieberman in, Ofir out

October 31, 2006
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Leiberman in, Labour out?

October 24, 2006
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Frozen negotiations

October 15, 2006
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Olmert meets Saudis?

September 24, 2006
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Government Investigation Committee

September 18, 2006
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A renewed peace process

September 10, 2006
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Committees of investigation

September 3, 2006
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The fight is on

August 27, 2006
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The scorecard

July 24, 2006
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Lebanon summer 2006

July 16, 2006
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Ceasefire now

July 9, 2006
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Kidnapped and trapped

July 2, 2006
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The Gaza beach investigation

June 18, 2006
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Killing of Innocent was inevitable

June 11, 2006
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 Olmert Continues Making the Rounds

 June 4, 2006
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  Terror hits Israel again

April 21, 2006


[[Jerusalem Times: Opinion]]

 

February 17, 2006

 

This week in Israel….. Behind the news with Gershon Baskin

 

 

Tolerance

 

This week the issue of the Center for Tolerance Museum being constructed on top of an old Muslim cemetery in the center of Jeruesalem hit the news. The Simon Wiesenthal Center broke ground on its project to establish this new Jerusalem institution on land that was a well known Muslim cemetery.  Apparently the preparation work has been going on for five years during which time almost no objections were raised by the public.  Now public opposition is on the rise with the Al Aqsa Institution charged with preserving Muslim sites all over Israel taking the lead.  This issue also fall on the wake of the Islamic explosion over the caricatures depicting negative images of the Prophet Mohammed in Danish newspapers. I have also been leading a public campaign to get the Wiesenthal Center to realize the absurdity of building a center for tolerance on the remains of a Muslim cemetery.  A letter writing campaign has begun and apparently the Chief Rabbis of Israel will also weigh in against building the museum on that site.  The Wiesenthal Center has already responded with the following:

 

Thank you for expressing your concern over the discovery of human remains at the construction site of our Center for Human Dignity in Jerusalem.  We are, of course, committed to working with Israeli authorities and Muslim religious experts to ensure that the remains are re-interred in a Muslim cemetery with maximum care and respect for the dead.

For your information, the Center for Human Dignity is being built on land granted to us by the government of
Israel and the City of Jerusalem.  For decades, the land served as a parking lot.  We went through five years of public hearings, including presentations to Jerusalem`s City Council, Zoning Commission.  Throughout that public process, not a single person came forward with any indication of any such problem.  Furthermore, it is not unusual in the history-rich Holy Land for human remains to be found on the sites of new construction.  That is why there is a special department called the Israel Antiquity Authority that has total access to every site, including ours, to provide expertise and specific actions to deal with any such developments.

Be assured then, that we are committed to do everything in our power to see to it that all the remains will be moved and re-interred in keeping with the religious and humanitarian sensitivities of all concerned.

Very truly yours,

Rabbi Abraham Cooper
Associate Dean
Simon Wiesenthal Center

 

In my humble view the answer of the Wiesenthal Center is not satisfactory.  This museum cannot be built on that site, even if it was a parking lot for the past thirty years.  In the initial ground-breaking more than 250 graves have already been uncovered. The decision of the Municipality of Jerusalem to build a parking lot on the cemetery was a wrong decision 30 years ago. The location of the Museum must be moved and the graves returned to their original location. The parking lot should not be re-instated.  There is no way that Jerusalem can ever be a city of peace if we do not learn to respect the sacred space of all of the religions in the city.  This is only the first chapter of this struggle, more will surely follow.

 

Omri and Naomi and all of their friends

 

While the Israeli public has seemed quite apathetic to the rampant public corruption that exists in the public sphere, the Courts have made the first move to demonstrate greater resolve in removing this illness from Israeli politics.  Omri Sharon was sentenced this week in the first case of election related corruption with a nine-month prison sentence and a fine of 300,000 NIS. He will surely appeal, but he stands on very weak grounds to get the court to change the sentence.  Likud MK Naomi Blumenthal was also convicted of election bribery and covering up evidence.  Her sentencing will take place after the elections.  In the meantime, Netenyahu is pressuring her to withdraw from the Likud list for the upcoming elections.  There are other cases outstanding that will also be dealt with after elections with Kadima Minister Tzahi Hanegbi leading the list.  Supreme Court Justice Mishel Cheshin resigned from the Court this week after reaching the age of 70.  In his parting speech, he appealed to the legal system to continue to battle against public corruption.  His appeal has wide support in the legal system and despite the fact that the public has placed this issue low on the scale of important issues to be dealt with, it seems that public officials are going to be much more careful particularly now during election season.  Already the various political parties are demonstrating much more diligence concerning collecting campaign funds and on election spending.

 

The polls this week

 

Kadima remains strong in the polls with a small gain of 1-2 seats now at 41-42.  Labour remains around the 17-20 mark and Likud seems to be dropping to 15-17.  Shas remains firm at 10, the Arab parties (combined) at 9 and the new alliance of the National religious party and the National Union are at 8-10 seats. Meretz and the Ashkenazi Jewish Torah party each are firm at five seats.  The polls indicate a stable trend over the past weeks, but the election campaigns are now just beginning to gel and to go public.  It seems that the campaigns are very likely to focus on the negative sides rather than addressing real issues and platforms. There will be a lot of personal attacks by the leaders of the parties against all of the other leaders. Kadima will remain silent about most of its policies and intentions, its voice will be heard by the actions it takes as the current Government. The main challenges it will face in the coming weeks are of course related to developments on the Palestinian side.

 

 

Deciding what to do with Hamas

 

The Palestinian Parliament will meet for the first time tomorrow (Saturday) at which time it will elect its speaker and two deputies.  There is no certainty that the candidate for Prime Minister will be announced, but early indication seem to suggest that the government will be headed by the leading Hamas party leader Ismail Haniyeh.  The Israeli government has convened several meetings already to crystallize its position vis-à-vis a new Hamas government.  So far it is not a pretty picture.  The Israeli moves are likely to completely cut the Palestinians from Israel. First, laborers from Gaza will no longer be able to work in Israel. Merchants will be able to continue to move but there is no telling how long that will last.  Israel is likely to put an end to the common customs envelope with Gaza and later with the West Bank, once the separation barrier is completed.  Gaza and the West Bank will be completely detached – Palestinians wishing to travel between the two areas will have to go via Amman and Cairo. The new international terminals built at some of the crossing points between the West Bank and Israel will now be the only places where Palestinians holding permits will be able to cross into Israel.  Permits will now be much harder to get. There will be separate crossing points for other Israelis including settlers to move across the borders.

 

The Government of Israel is also determined to pressure the international community to cease all transfers of funds to the Palestinian Authority.  The Government is likely to set an example by freezing any further transfers of customs and VAT revenues to the Palestinian Authority. A difference of opinions was raised on this issue in a meeting that took place between EU Foreign Minister Javier Solana and Tzipi Livni.  The Government of Israel will take up this issue with the US Administration using Washington to pressure Brussels.  This issue is also just beginning to brew. The Palestinians are in for tough times, and undoubtedly, Israel will also face some difficult challenges in the coming weeks.

 

 

 

[[Jerusalem Times: Opinion]]

 

February 10, 2006

 

This week in Israel….. Behind the news with Gershon Baskin

 

 

 

Lists and more lists

 

Campaign season is officially open now that 31 political parties have submitted their lists to the Central Elections Committee. Last minute negotiations led to the unification of the National Religious Party and the National Union. The unification will probably increase their strength but it will weaken the Likud.  The new union of religious Zionist extremists still holds onto the mystical dream of the greater land of Israel.  The main difference between the religious union and the Likud is over this issue.  The Likud officially recognizes the Oslo process even though Netanyahu, as Prime Minister, worked systematically to destroy the agreements. Another difference is that the Likud is almost completely devoid of religious people on their list.  The right wing of Israel has diminished over the past years while the religious parties, which in general were moderate in their political views, have moved to the right.  The new union will depend mainly on the settlers for their votes. The rest of the religious public has a number of choices – as usual, from the Sephardic Shas party, which tried but failed to include a prominent Ashkenazi intellectual on their list, to the ultra orthodox  Ashkenazi Jewish Torah party, to the fanatic extremist Hebron hoodlum Baruch Marzel, the follower and disciple of Meir Kahana, who heads the National Jewish front party.

 

The Arab parties also managed to somewhat unite with the United Arab list of Dahamshe (the Islamic movement), Ahmad Tibi’s national Arab list, and the Arab democratic party.  Running against them are Hadash – the communists and Arab nationalists, and Azmi Bishara’s Balad party.  Balad is planning an aggressive campaign against voting for Zionist parties.  Their slogan will be something like “shame on you if you vote for Zionists!”

 

Some of the more esoteric parties that will probably not pass the 2% threshold are: Tafnit of the former national security advisor Uzi Dayan, Shinui and its estranged sister Hetz – standing for secular Zionism, Lechem – bread or struggle – leading the unemployed and hungry who did not find a common language with Amir Peretz, Tzomet and Herut – both looking to the shrinking radical right for support.

 

One party which will fair well is Avigdor Leiberman’s Yisrael Beitenu party which is looking at 6-10 seats in the polls – mainly from the Russian voters.  Ale Yarok – the green leaf party is bordering the threshold once again, and may send two happy smokers to the Knesset.

 

The polls show no major shifts this week but now we are 46 days from elections and in the coming weeks the reported 9% of undecided voters will begin to make decisions, some changes may be ahead but very few surprises and in store.

 

 

Doha, Cairo, Moscow, Washington, New York and back again

 

Qatar, the small desert Emirate, 11.5 thousand square kilometers of sand with zero fresh water reserves and some 863,000 citizens with a per capita income of about $26,000 (Israel= $17,000 per capita) deserves some attention this week. Qatar is home to Al-Jazeera satellite television that has revolutionized television news in the Arab world. It is also one of the oil rich nations of the world producing some 790,000 barrels a day. Qatar hosted the Hamas delegation yesterday after concluding their summit meeting in Cairo.  The Hamas delegation is making the rounds in the oil rich Gulf in search of money to fund the PA should international aid decline or end.  It is likely that Qatar will add some funds to the PA’s empty barrel. 

 

Qatar’s Foreign Minister also telephoned Israeli Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni to New York last night where she is completing her first US tour as Foreign Minister.  Is Qatar trying to be a mediator in the Israel-Palestinian conflict?  Qatar has been making serious inroads into Israel in the past years.  The most visible of all of Qatar’s efforts was the funding of the football stadium in Sakhnin which is called Doha Stadium in honor of Qatar’s capital city. Last week a Qatari business delegation visited Israel – staying way below the media radar screnes. 

 

In the Cairo summit Egyptian leaders and Arab League Secretary-General Amr Mousa pressured Hamas to accept the Arab league initiative of March 2002 which called on Israeli to withdraw to the 1967 borders, allow for the establishment of a Palestinian state with East Jerusalem as its capital and a just and agreeable solution to the refugee problem in exchange for which Israel will receive full peace and recognition from all of the countries of the Arab league.  The initiative had the unanimous support of all member states of the Arab league when it was voted on in Beirut in 2002.  Quite interestingly, if Hamas were to accept the Arab League initiative it would then be able to state unequivocally that it is willing to recognize Israel on the condition that Israel ends the occupation. If, along with it Hamas continued the tahdiya – calm – ceasefire, which it has observed with great discipline already for just over 1 year, two of the three main Israeli demands on the Hamas could be interpreted as having been met (1-recognition, 2- ceasing terrorism, and 3- recognizing all signed agreements  = agreeing to a political process). Regarding the issue of disarming, Hamas leaders laughed that one off as they stated that they would be fully willing to turn over their arms to the Palestinian Authority police that they control.  Hamas’ political strategy is to place the onus of meeting demands on Israel rather than on itself.  Hamas’s grand strategy is to turn the occupation into the main issue and crime and not terrorism.

 

Israel’s strategy is to ensure that the international community not compromise on the accepted demands for recognition of Hamas, but Russian President Putin already broke out of the international consensus and invited Hamas leaders to visit Moscow.  Hamas has already responded positively to the invitation.  Russia is one of the four legs of a Quartet, which if until now was not particularly relevant, is now either going to function as a triplet or cease to exist – at least from Israel’s viewpoint.  The Russian invitation and recognition of Hamas is a major blow to Israel’s strategy.  Tzipi Livni’s message to the Ambassador’s of the five permanent members of the Security Council, who she met with yesterday was that the international community must not lower the demands to recognize Hamas – this would only encourage global terrorism - she told them.  Her meeting took place prior to Putin’s announcement that he is inviting Hamas to Moscow.  It is even likely that the Russian Ambassador in the UN had no idea of Putin’s surprise.  Perhaps now Israel should invite the Chechnyan Islamic separatists for a visit to Jerusalem?

 

Hamas will continue to find cracks in the wall of international resistance to recognize it.  Nonetheless, Russia is only the first of others that will open a door to Hamas.  Now, those open doors are being explained as the only way to influence a process of moderation.  Time will tell if this strategy works – until now Hamas has not given any official signals of a policy shift, despite some of the more moderate voices that have been heard.

 

President Bush’s “surprise” visit with Livni while she was meeting with US National Security Advisor Stephen Hadley was aimed at sending a clear message around the world that the US supports Israel’s policy on Hamas.  The President’s message was further strengthened this week when his 2007 budget was sent to Congress with no less than $2.8 billion of US tax payers support to Israel. Bush also spoke about a US military umbrella that will protect Israel in the event that Iran does manage to complete its nuclear weapons program.  The US would like at this time to keep Israel silent while the international community, through the Security Council, tries to prevent the Iranians from advancing their program. With the price of oil rising above $66 a barrel this week, the Iranians now have enough cash flowing back to Tehran that any attempts of international sanctions will take a very long time to have any real impact.

 

Speaking about money….

 

Israeli trade to the Arab world grew substantially in 2005.  Israeli exports to the Arab world were up 29% reaching a total of $232.6 million.  The highest growth on the list was Egypt where Israel increased its exports by 214% reaching $93.  Israel exports more to Jordan, $115.2 million in 2005, but this was a decrease of 13% from last year. Other significant increases were 18% to Morocco ($11.2 million), and Tunisia 69% ($1.9 million). The Qatari business delegation that visited Israel last week kept a very low profile as almost all of their time was spent searching out business opportunities in Israel.  They were not interested in doing business in the Palestinian areas although the Palestinians are hoping to increase some of their meager exports to the Gulf.  In particular the Palestinians are interested in shipping agricultural produce from the West Bank to the Gulf where they hope to get higher prices than the local market. 

 

The Israeli Contractors Association this week announced that it was making efforts to renew purchases of stone, marble and aggregates from Palestinian producers. This is the result of the single-handed effort of Lt. Colonel (ret.) Itzik Gurvitz who for the past years headed the economic branch of the Coordinator’s office in the Ministry of Defense. At a time when Palestinian labor in Israel is being reduced to a negligible level, purchasing of Palestinian goods by Israelis is the best way to help the Palestinian private sector to survive.

 

Erez, Karni, Qassams, Fatah and futility

 

For the past two weeks Israel has been fighting back against the Qassam rocket rainfall that continues to hit the western Negev and south of Ashkelon.  Israeli General Yoav Gallant said that Israel has fired hundreds of artillery shells into the northern area of Gaza destroying roads and bridges leading to the areas where Qassam rockets are fired and will continue to shoot as long as the Qassams are being fired.  The launchers apparently have not been Hamas people, but Fatah affiliates. Under the operations title of “lightening” the Israeli air force has been hitting hard at Fatah gunmen.  In the past two week 15 have been killed by air force missile.  Along with the continued Qassam launchings, yesterday Fatah gunmen tried an attack at the Erez crossing where more than 5,000 Palestinian laborers cross into Israel every day. At 4:30 am Israeli guards suddenly noticed that the flow of human traffic ceased.  They also noticed that the Palestinian guards on the other side of the wall deserted their posts. The Israeli troops had sufficient time to prepare for the attack and after just a few moments of fighting, two Palestinian gunmen were killed, a third is believed to have escaped.  Now Erez is closed until further notice. I tried to help a friend, the manager of the Beit Hanoun agricultural cooperative, to get out of Erez yesterday – he needs to travel to Tunis where he is supposed to attend an agricultural trade fair trying to market Palestinian fresh produce from Gaza to Tunisia.  Obviously, after the attack on Erez there was no one to speak with.  The Israelis had issued a permit for him to travel to Tunisia via Ben Gurion airport, now at least he has the possibility of traveling to Cairo via Rafah. It is not as easy and takes more time, but at least he is not trapped.

 

Israel re-opened the Karni crossing after being closed for 26 days because of security risks.  During that time, the Palestinians claim that they lost $30 million from fresh produce that rotted instead of getting to the markets.  The Israeli-Palestinian agreement on crossing facilitated by Secretary Rice stipulated that if Karni had to be closed for security reasons, another crossing would be opened immediately in its place.  Israel offered the Palestinian the use of Kerem Shalom, which has never been used for cargo, but the PA refused because they fear that this was an Israeli attempt to force the Palestinian to use Kerem Shalom on a permanent basis.  The Palestinians rejected the use of Kerem Shalom because it leaves full control to the Israelis and could replace Rafah.  The Palestinians insisted on using Erez or Sufa crossings which are not prepared for regular cargo transports and would be likely to remain temporary.  The political haggling was, as usual, on the backs of the poor guys – in this case the Gaza farmers.  Two weeks before Karni was re-opened the Palestinians found a tunnel underneath Karni that led to the Israeli side and they turned over some $25 kilos of explosives that were supposed to be used to blow up the crossing.

 

[[Jerusalem Times: Opinion]]

 

February 3, 2006

 

This week in Israel….. Behind the news with Gershon Baskin

 

 

 

Non-conventional weapons in Amona

 

Elections fever in Israel is serving well the rule of law.  Suddenly, the removal of unauthorized outposts has become a top priority for the government of Olmert. Clearly making a correct strategic choice, Olmert is demonstrating firm leadership and asserting himself in the eyes of the Israeli public as the next best thing to Sharon. Olmert got it right in his assessment that the public wants to see the removal of the outposts and following the High Court’s decision, Olmert had the legal backing to demonstrate his firm resolve. 

 

The settlers, who failed to prevent the disengagement from Gaza understand that the battle for the West Bank has already begun. The young generation of settlers no longer accepts the leadership of Moetzet Yesha (The Settlers Council) who led what they call an appeasement policy.  No longer is there a call for embracing the police and army with hugs.  No longer is the slogan “we will win with love” being heard from the settler’s camp. This time the youngsters took to the front lines with the battle call “resistance”.  Armed with stones, blocks, metal bars, paint, oil, and a willingness to use violence, the settlers “non-conventional weapon” – 16 and 17 year old youths took on more than 6,000 Israeli soldiers and police. Unlike the Gaza settlers, the Amona settlers are their supporters were not families with young children.  The demographic make-up of the settlers and their supporters were not a mix of former development town residents from Israel’s Sephardic population like in Gush Katif. Amona’s supporters were the children of the upper and middle class Ashkenazi hard core settlement movement being faced by a wide array of Druze, Bedouin and Sephardi border police. There was a definite element of social gaps between the two sides.  The end result was violence with more than 200 people – kids and police being wounded.

 

In Gaza, Israel disengaged from the settlers and the settlements, today, many if not most of the settler youth feel that in Amona, they have now disengaged from Israel.  This is a real crisis for the national religious Zionist right in Israel.  There are growing sectors of that population who no longer feel that Israel is their State.  In their eyes, the State of Israel has lost its Jewishness and its Jewish roots.  For them the ultimate expression of the Judaism is their connection to the Land of Israel – which is not Tel Aviv, but the biblical heartland of Judea and Samaria.  The majority of Israelis have recognized that the State of Israel cannot continue to occupy that part of the Land of Israel and therefore supports further disengagement.  The future of Religious Zionism will be shaped by the struggle amongst the settlers themselves between the old leadership, which stills believes that they must use the legal and the political systems of the State to fight their cause (although they already understand that the struggle for holding on beyond the security barrier has been lost) and the young leadership, the children of the founding generation of the settlers, who no longer see the State as the primary legitimate framework for the Jewish people and Zionism.  This internal crisis of religious Zionism will create a split in that movement with the more extremist elements of the settlers calling for the establishment of a separate sovereign State in Judea and Samaria.  There have been extremists elements in the past who proposed this agenda – now they have a potential following.

 

 

Livni in Egypt

 

Tzipi Livni on her first international mission abroad surprised even the experienced diplomats of the foreign ministry staff by holding a private meeting with President Mubarak for some two and a half hours- the meeting was initially scheduled to last 45 minutes. The Egyptians and the Israelis had a long list of issues to assess following the Hamas victory in the Palestinian parliament.  Egypt surprised everyone by insisting that Hamas recognize Israel and the Oslo agreements.  At the same time, Egypt pressured Israel not to freeze the VAT and Customs tariffs collected by Israel amounting to some $50 million a month – money that the PA needs in order not to go bankrupt. The PA pays some 150,000 salaries per month including more than 70,000 people in the police force.   The government of Israel made a decision at its weekly meeting on Sunday to freeze the payment for a one week.  The payment was due to be made this week and the PA needed the funds to pay the monthly salaries that were supposed to be paid at the beginning of February.  The Israeli cabinet will re-evaluate the issue on Sunday and is likely to decide to transfer 50% of the money.  The other 50% will be claimed by Israel to pay PA debts to the Israeli electricity company. The payment of PA debts to Israeli public suppliers can be paid from the VAT and customs monies collected by Israel based on a prior agreement between the PA and Israel.  In the past couple of years PA Finance Minister Salam Fayyad approved all of the PA debts and agreed to Israel deducting those debts from the monthly transfers. Now, the PA acting Finance Minister Jihad al Wazir will have to approve the payment of the debts.  As long as the system for using the money and for clearing the debts remains in the hands of the caretaker government, the international community is likely to encourage Israel to continue the transfers.  Once there is a new Hamas controlled government in place, the situation is likely to change.

 

The Israeli-Egyptian dialogue is going to become a permanent and important fixture of regional arrangements in the new Hamas era. Likewise there will be a significant improvement in Jordan-Israel relations and a lot more coordination and cooperation between Israel and its peace partners in Egypt and Jordan.  Other less formal relations between Israel and other Arab states will also improve.  A business delegation from Qatar has been in Israel this past week investigating all kinds of business dealings with Israelis. At the same time a delegation of private sector leaders from Israel and Palestine were in Stockholm hosted by the Swedish Industrialists investigating how the private sector could continue to work together while there will be no contacts between the governments of Israel and the PA. 

 

Elections in Israel, elections in Palestine

 

The first polls after the Palestinian elections show almost no immediate impact of the Palestinian elections on the Israeli electorate.  The weekly flux of movement remained the same without any surprises.  Some polls showed an increase in support for Kadima of 1-2 seats while other polls showed a decrease of support in the same volume. Almost all of the polls showed a decline of support for the Likud against the predictions of some of the analysts that the Hamas victory would produce a right wing rise in Israel

 

The Labour party seems to have ended its downward trend although its rise in the polls has not yet happened.  Ehud Barak was dancing with Uzi Dayan, the former national security advisor who formed a party “Tafnit” that according to the polls will not pass the 2% threshold. Dayan was courting Barak to join him, but Barak has decided to stay in Labour with his eyes on a take over after the elections.

 

Shinui’s leader Tommy Lapid completed the death blow to Shinui by formally announcing his resignation from the Party and by calling to the public not to give their trust to the party.  Shinui MK’s who are staying in the party negotiated a deal with those who are leaving on the division of the campaign funds that they are entitled to.  It is still not clear where the Shinui refugees will end up.  They have until Wednesday next week to submit their list to the central elections committee.  The Shinui refugees were busy searching for a “shelf party” – a political party that is registered but dormant in order to run for the elections.  More news on this next week.

 

Kadima presented its list of 50 candidates at a ceremony on Tuesday in Jerusalem.  Although highly criticized for a complete lack of internal democracy, the list presented by Olmert was quite interesting with a whole group of new personalities to become members of Knesset.  Many of the new people would never find their way into politics without the opportunity created by Kadima.  In the assessment of many analysts, the quality of the next Knesset will be significantly better than the outgoing Knesset.

 

[[Jerusalem Times: Opinion]]

 

January 27, 2006

 

This week in Israel….. Behind the news with Gershon Baskin

 

Over there

 

The most dramatic thing that happened in Israel this week is of course what happened next door to Israel in the Palestinian Authority.  Democracy prevailed and the Hamas won a huge victory.  President Bush, with his puppy dog face, applauded the wonders of democracy and the competition of ideas.  Most Israeli politicians wondered if Bush would have allowed Al Qaeda to participate in democratic elections in Washington and if a party associated with Al Qaeda did participate would Bush applaud the competition of ideas being presented to the American people.  Most critics of the Israeli government inside of Israel ponder the question of whether or not Israel could have prevented the Hamas from participating in the elections.  Former Foreign Minister Silvan Shalom said that this is what he wanted to do and pushed for, but that Prime Minister Sharon was too slow to act and was perhaps under pressure from Washington

 

Apparently the Israeli security services were also working under the assumption that it would not be possible to prevent Hamas from participating in the elections because then the elections would be canceled.  Most Israeli security people believed that the elections were essential in order to empower Mahmoud Abbas and to increase his legitimacy.  Of course, Israel did almost nothing to empower Abbas prior to elections. So given that, one must ask today were the security folks right?  Once again, the intelligence community has a lot to answer for.  How is it that they were so wrong in their predictions of the outcome of the elections?  I met several senior intelligence officials this past week at the Herzliya conference.  I queried them on their assessment of the expected outcome of the elections. They were all quite fluent in their ability to regurgitate the assessments, analyses and numbers of the Palestinian public opinion polls.  They all said that Fatah would win with a slim majority. They all thought that I was off-based when I suggested that from my analysis of the situation on the ground there would be a significant Hamas victory - I mentioned the number 55% for Hamas.  I told them that from the results of the past four rounds of municipal elections, the inability of Fatah to organize itself, the multiplicity of independent candidates, the internal discipline of Hamas, the amount of green flags and Hamas posters around the West Bank and Gaza, the overwhelming belief in the territories that Hamas brought about the Israeli evacuation from Gaza – all this and more, led me to believe that Hamas would win a victory.  How is it that the Israeli intelligence community including the Shabak, the IDF intelligence, the Mossad and more were completely incapable of predicting something that seemed so obvious to me?

 

In light of the intelligence failure, it is also worthwhile asking once again the question regarding the Hamas participation in the elections.  Former Deputy Prime Minister of Malaysia, democracy activists and religious Muslim Dr. Anwar Ibrahim told me that in his opinion no party that supports terrorism, does not respect human rights, is armed and uses its arms should be allowed to participate in democratic elections.  I asked him how it is possible to prevent groups such as Hizballah and Hamas from participating in democratic elections. He said to