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This Week in Palestine - Behind The News - By Hanna Siniora
February 21, 2006
This week in Palestine….. Behind the news with Hanna Siniora
New Era- Hamas Cabinet
Economic Repercussions
PA and Hamas Priorities
International Assistance, Hamas Role
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[[Jerusalem Times: Opinion]]
February 12, 2006
This week in Palestine….. Behind the news with Hanna Siniora
Hamas to Form Cabinet
On the 18th of February, the Palestinian Legislative Council (PLC) will convene to elect the speaker of the council and its two deputies, and to have its members swear allegiance to uphold the basic laws. Following that, President Abbas will ask Hamas, most probably the head of its electoral list, Ismail Haniyyeh to form the PA cabinet. Hamas has indicated, so far, that it wants one of its members to become the next Prime Minister (PM) and to take control of the Interior, Finance, National Economy and Education ministries. Hamas also indicated that it is seeking a National Unity Coalition, and is offering the Fateh Movement and other Palestinian parties sharing of power and duties. Initially, immediately after the election results were announced, Fateh leaders declared that they want to become the opposition and wanted to stay out of Hamas cabinet. Now that the shock of being ousted from power by the voters has abated, some Fateh leaders are reconsidering the possibility of joining Hamas in the next cabinet. It is apparent that for the good of the Palestinian people, a grand coalition with share responsibilities would be imperative for both Hamas and Fateh.
Speculation about the Hamas cabinet indicates that the if Hamas is unable to form a National Unity cabinet, Hamas is planning to put technocrats in most of the cabinet portfolios. Already it had been announced that the next minister of tourism will be a Christian Palestinian, a part that has been traditionally held by Christian Palestinians in the past. The Minister of Foreign Affairs could be held by a Fateh representative, if Fateh joins the coalition, or it might go to Dr. Ziad Abu Amer, a PLC member elected as independent from Gaza.
It is also possible that the coming Hamas cabinet might include candidates from all three national lists, the PFLP, the Alternative (Badil) and the Third Way (Salam Fayyad). All the previous Fateh led cabinets included ministers from other parties under the PLO umbrella, and Hamas would do the same.
Russia, France and International Aid
President Putin broke ranks with the USA by inviting a Hamas delegation to visit Moscow in the second half of this month. Israel immediately protested because it revealed that the isolation and boycott of Hamas has already broken down.
France, unlike Germany and UK, welcomed the Russian move and thus become the first EU country to accept the result of the democratic elections in Palestine. France thus understood the grave damage to democracy it rendered when it pressured the FLN Algerian government to annul the elections results years ago, because the Islamic movement won those elections. Civil war broke out in Algeria and its effects are felt to this day. Most hostile reactions to the unexpected Hamas victory have cooled down, and second thoughts are being considered, first to respect the democratic change of regime, and to give Hamas the opportunity to prove its ability to provide good governance, enforce security and the rule of law, and to moderate its platform.
The World Bank announced that it will transfer $60 million to the PA, after the Israeli government rescinded its freezing of customs and tax revenues that it transfers monthly to the PA. The disbursement of international aid for the next three months will continue by the EU. The Arab countries are being asked to increase their contribution in support of the PA budget. Around a billion dollars are needed on a yearly basis to prevent the PA form going bankrupt, and the Hamas cabinet will bear responsibility for allowing economic aid to continue.
Israel and the USA, have to review their attitude towards Hamas in a more pragmatic manner than the threat of freezing the transfer of funds by Israel, and the freezing of support infrastructure projects for the PA. The wiser approach is to help Hamas provide needed services, stabilize security and good governance.
Hamas declarations
So far declarations by Hamas leaders, Khaled Mashal and others indicate that Hamas is not going to recognize Israel shortly. Hamas leaders have pointed that they will respect all agreements ratified by the PLO on behalf of the PA, but they will attempt to improve on them. The PLO recognized Israel, but Israel so far despite this recognition has not accepted the emergence of an independent state of Palestine on all of the occupied territories from 1967. The Hamas platform includes that every inch of the historical land of Palestine is holy, yet at the same time, Hamas is offering a long term truce, fifteen years, if Israel withdraws to 1967 borders (the green line). It seems that the Hamas declared policy is changing tactics; they will reciprocate if Israel makes such moves and will not give concessions, unless concessions are given also by Israel.
Islam and insults of the Prophet
Local Hamas leaders met in Ramallah-Al Bireh with about 2,000 young people to discuss the public reaction to the offensive cartoons published in Denmark and other European countries. Sheikh Fadel Salah, the newly elected PLC member from Hamas, announced publicly that the Islamic world should demonstrate the progressive face of Islam; he said that all violence against civilians should stop that violence against diplomatic outputs and embassies should stop, that kidnappings should stop. Sheikh Salah, an influential Hamas leader from the Ramallah district said publicly that these acts of violence damage the image of Islam. He encouraged cultural engagement and not cultural confrontation. This public display indicates that Hamas leaders understood their responsibility to deliver a better performance to their public in all spheres, religious, cultural, security and stability.
Reciprocity is the Policy
Previously, Benjamin Netanyahu used to criticize the Sharon Government policy of unilateral disengagement, that it did not receive a concession from the PA in return of evacuating Gaza. Today Hamas is saying very loudly that we will consider giving payment, if payment is paid. No more payment for empty promises. Israel, if it pursues the refusal to engage the enemy, or if it asks the USA to ostracize and isolate the Hamas government, might kindle the flame of violence. The two people of the region, Israelis and Palestinians, as well as the whole region will go up in flame. The two state solution will be lost forever, and we will enter a long-term violent conflict that will degenerate into more hardship for all of us. It is possible that if the wiser approach of reciprocal moves might lead our people from the dangers of civil war and toward the road of peace. The next few months will indicate the way.
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[[Jerusalem Times: Opinion]]
February 3, 2006
This week in Palestine….. Behind the news with Hanna Siniora
Mahmoud Abbas in a Quandary
In the Arab world, President Abbas is the second Arab leader in recent history who hands power to a democratically elected party. A couple of decades ago General Suwar Al-Dahab of Sudan took power in Sudan when the army threw out the Sudanese dictator of that period Numeiri and handed it to a democratically elected government.
Mahmoud Abbas, to whose credit goes his insistence in carrying the real exemplary democratic fair and square elections, according to democratic tradition he should be handing the reign of government in the PA to the Hamas majority. International pressure on him as well as on the Hamas movement might prevent him from fulfilling the democratic step of asking the leader of Hamas to form the next PA cabinet.
Already the Palestinian public, the Hamas majority, public opinion in the Arab and Moslem world, are wary of the possibility that pressure is being put on Abbas to forego parliamentary tradition and deny Hamas the right of forming the government. One consequence would be that within one week, Abbas who was acclaimed as the champion of true democracy will be accused by his people and the free world of treading over and abusing democratic principles, thus causing him to become a pariah in his own country.
Additionally, he would become the second Arab leader to dismiss the duly democratically elected party in his country from taking office, the FLN and its leader Boutaflika in Algeria did it at the advice of western countries, among them France, and it led to a vicious civil war that Algeria, up to this date, has not completely recovered from. Abbas certainly is in a quandary, he wants to be remembered as the Palestinian leader who nurtured nascent democracy in Palestine, can he withstand Arab and Western pressure and courageously proceed with the democratic process or is he going to succumb to pressure and most probably lead his nation to disaster and civil war. I believe he will be steadfast to the democratic principles with all its dangers.
Cohabitation: Sharing Power
Democracy in Palestine is at its early stages, it needs to grow roots, if it goes forward as a majority of the people wish, it will soon face the challenge of power sharing, co-habitation between a duly elected secular Fateh leader, and a duly elected fundamentalist religious movement. When the PA was originally structured, our first President Yasser Arafat wanted a strong executive presidential system similar to the American presidency but without the checks and balances that the USA built.
Israel initially suggested in the Oslo accords, an executive council of 24 headed by Arafat and had no intention of offering a parliament. To the credit of Arafat, he cajoled and coaxed the Israeli government into accepting an 88 member legislative council (PLC).
As a result of the second Intifada in 2000, Yasser Arafat was branded as no partner by Ehud Barak then by Arik Sharon. Israel, the USA, even the EU pressured Arafat in creating the job of Prime Minister and Mahmoud Abbas became the PA’s first PM. After a few months on the job, he resigned in dispute over the issue that the PA cabinet, and the PM and his interior minister should be in charge of the security forces.
Now, we are facing arguments between Hamas and the Presidency, on this very issue again. The present caretaker government when it took office, the Interior Minister was put in charge of the security forces. Hamas argues that security is the prerogative of the cabinet and not the presidency. This is going to be a major bone of contention that might disrupt cordial relations between the president and the Hamas movement.
Another issue, which might be useful in diminishing Israeli and western opposition to Hamas forming the government, would be who should conduct negotiation between Israel and the PA. All the agreements with Israel were ratified by the PLO and not the PA. Israel and the PLO mutually recognized each other in the Oslo accords. Hamas could announce that negotiation will be left in the hands of Abbas, who is also the PLO chairman, and that their mission is to fulfill their campaign promises of change and reform and in this sphere establish cordial cohabitation with the presidency, and avoid stormy relations with Israel and the international community at this stage.
Similarly continue to follow the established role of the presidency in appointing Palestinian diplomats and conducting foreign policy.
Hamas can also proclaim as some of its leader has already publicly declared that they accept binding international agreements, and are offering Israel a long-term cease-fire, and at this stage are mainly concerned with the welfare of the Palestinian people in providing better services developing the economy and creating jobs. This will insure that Hamas will not be a one term phenomena, and might create for Hamas a better image internally and externally.
Is constructive cohabitation of this type possible? The country needs it the region needs it, Hamas can diminish the fear of it assuming power without losing face with its constituency.
Hamas wisely chose the proper slogans in order to reach power. They ran on the promise of change and they brought change, they ran on the issue of providing reform and they have the chance to do it, by limiting their first years in power to do so.
The Palestinian Stock exchange is in jitters, it is losing daily 4-5 percent of its worth, the maximum that the rules will allow, Hamas has the duty to reassure the leaders of the private sector that they are going to provide stability and help rebuild the economy, this is were they should focus on immediately.
The EU has taken a wiser stand of not cutting aid immediately, they will make judgment in a few months according to actions and not presumptions, it is also to the best interest of the USA to do the same, also Israel should transfer customs and taxes to the PA as usual, the policy of the stick, collective punishment has always back-lashed negatively, the Israeli security people recognize its damage, the Israeli government should also follow the footsteps of the EU.
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[[Jerusalem Times: Opinion]]
January 27, 2006
This week in Palestine….. Behind the news with Hanna Siniora
Democratic Change
In one day this January 25th, 2006, for the first time in the modern history of the Arab world, change took place through the ballot box and it caused a political earthquake. The Fateh administration was voted out of office not by tanks, not through a coup d’etat, not through violence, but through the will of the people asking for drastic change, the result was simply Fateh out Hamas in.
As usual the pollsters were wrong. The team at Bir Zeit University and Dr. Khalil Shikaki’s PSR organization both wrongly predicted a Fateh victory using a sample of exit votes. Bir Zeit predicted that Fateh will get 63 seats to Hamas 58, Shikaki predicted Fateh getting 58 while Hamas getting 53. Palestinians and the media that night went to bed believing that Fateh scored a narrow victory.
When the next morning the official results became known, it fell like a bombshell on Palestinians, Israelis, the USA and the EU. By night fall of the 26 of January the official results were announced and everybody saw how extensive the Hamas victory was. The election took place using the two parallel systems, the proportional part for 66 seats resulted in Hamas wining 30, Fateh 27, the PFLP 3, the Alternative list 2, the Independent Palestine List of Dr. Mustafa Barghouti 2, and the Third Way List of formal Finance Minister Salam Fayyad and Hanan Ashrawi 2. In the 16 local districts Hamas received 46 seats, Fateh 16, and 4 for independents. Fateh was soundly trounced, and the people wished for change became quite clear.
1.3 million Palestinians had the right to vote, 77.6% participated and for the first time in East Jerusalem, Jerusalemites in great numbers exercised their right to vote to the tone of nearly 50%, the highest percentage since the occupation started. The Palestinian Central Election Committee in the post polling had to extend the voting and additional 2 hours.
Prominent Fateh leaders in Hebron like Head of PA National Security Advisor lost, in East Jerusalem Fateh lost all Muslim 4 seats, the same happened elsewhere in Ramallah, in Nablus and other West Bank cities, the route was almost complete in the Gaza Strip, with the exception of Mohammad Dahlan who got elected. In the 16 districts Fateh managed to salvage 16 seats out of 66 seats a very poor showing.
Evaluation
Blame can assigned for this poor showing to all the Fateh rank and file. President Mahmoud Abbas who conducted fair and square elections is to be blamed for not putting his house in order. Abbas and the Fateh leadership had postponed the date of the elections from July 2005 to January 2006 to gain time to reorganize Fateh. They are to be blamed for postponing the Fateh conference until after the elections which should have been held before the parliamentary elections. Abbas introduced the primary system to choose candidates; Fateh toyed with it, instead of free and clean primaries to choose candidates, fraud and force took place openly in a way an accentuating the corruption charge hanging over Fateh. Additionally, Fateh fielded in the local districts official and non-official candidates, for example in the Jerusalem district Hamas nominated 4 candidates for the 4 Muslim seats while Fateh had 30 candidates. This spread and diluted the Fateh vote and led to the sound defeat in every district in the West Bank. Out of the 16 seats Fateh won in the districts, 5 safe seats were assigned to the Christian Palestinian quota, those seats Hamas did not contest.
Political Repercussions
In Palestine, those who felt the deep desire of the Palestinian electorate for change estimated a narrow Fateh victory, maybe a tide elections, few if any expected Hamas to emerge in full control of the PLC. The people heard Israel, the USA, and even the EU statements of dire consequences if Hamas became part of the next government. The people in their quest for change took the risk of losing economic and political support in order to punish Fateh for its corruption. Fateh’s mismanagement and flouting the rule of law, the people desired change after 12 years of Fateh rule.
For Hamas in opposition it was always easy to criticize. Now Hamas has a heavy of load of responsibility and duties to shoulder, on one hand they have to steer the ship of state to safety and to independence. As a religious fundamentalist movement they have to negotiate with Israel and be accepted by the West. Is Hamas able to modify its ideology? or Are they going to stick rigidly to its platform?
In the election campaign, Hamas managed to send signals of flexibility, they discarded the slogan calling for the destruction of Israel, Hamas announced its readiness to negotiate directly with Israel. They entered the democratic process of elections based on the Oslo agreements, while declaring that Oslo is dead. But what was important, tangible and real, and they continue to adhere the ceasefire.
Hamas, in a similar manner to the PLO before it is undergoing a process of transformation, history is repeating itself. Hamas is obliged to uphold its promises and pledges to its public to steer the ship of state to safety, to reexamine its platform, this is not going to happen overnight. In this process, it is a do or die situation, they have the responsibility of delivering the people form the burden of occupation as well as implementing their social and economic program. Militancy and armed confrontation of the occupation are not the tools of Hamas at the head of the PA they have also to change otherwise they will be isolated. The EU have to again be the vehicle in a similar role they played in the past with the PLO, the EU started it with the Venice declaration of 1980, the USA followed suite in the waning days of the Regan administration and Israel through the Oslo Accords. Hamas also must reciprocate otherwise it will be ostracized and isolated. It is Hamas’ turn to demonstrate flexibility and responsibility. Israel too can play an important role and profit from Hamas emerging as the leading power in the Palestinian political system. Israel has the ability to accelerate the Hamas movement towards moderation by adopting reciprocal and not unilateral steps. Israel by its actions can either drive Hamas deeper into the jungle or thus explode the fragile ceasefire or Israel and Hamas together can exploit the new situation to lead toward and political settlement.
Hamas, Israel and the International Community, can together play a constructive role first to stabilize the region, start the road to a political settlement or God forbid neglect the region allow the situation to deteriorate and thus intensify the conflict. The region and the world waited for the results of the Palestinian elections and the emergence of new Palestinian leaders, again the region is also waiting on March 28 for the Israeli Knesset elections and the emergence of new Israeli leader post the Sharon era.
Grounds for Hope and Fear Abound
Those who shortly will be in power in Israel and Palestine must understand the peoples of the region are fed up with the violence and instability and are looking forward for change but for the better, this should by the guideline and the goal for the new leaders.
A Personal Note
I ran as an independent for the seat in the PLC from the Jerusalem district, and I lost. I thank those who supported me, I congratulate those who have won and I will continue to work from outside the PLC for the two-state solution.
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[[Jerusalem Times: Opinion]]
January 16, 2206
This week in Palestine….. Behind the news with Hanna Siniora
A Ten Day Campaign
On Sunday the Israeli cabinet met to officially announce that it would allow the East Jerusalemites to conduct their election campaign according to the 1996 agreement. While all over the PA (West Bank & Gaza) the election campaign started the second of January, in Jerusalem it began on January 15. Thus, the campaign in Jerusalem will be for ten days. Polls taken in Jerusalem indicate that Hamas will take the four seats assigned for Moslems, the remaining two seats reserved for Christian Palestinian, will be contested by eight Christians Palestinians and this post of the district elections is still undecided.
In the rest of the PA, the latest poll taken during the first week of January 2006, indicates that Hamas is fast closing the gaps against Fateh; Hamas got 31% to Fateh’s 35 percent. In the proportional part of the elections for 66 seats, Fateh & Hamas will collect between 48 to 50 seats, in the district elections for the remaining 66 seats Hamas is expected to come ahead of the Fateh governing party. As a result of lack of cohesiveness within Fateh, Hamas might emerge as the largest party in the next PLC.
In Jerusalem, Fateh held a reception to open their campaign in the Jerusalem district at the Ambassador Hotel, and only twenty supporters come to celebrate the event.
Hamas Moderates its Platform
This week, the Hamas leadership removed the clause that calls for the destruction of Israel from its election platform, in an unexpected move to tone down Israeli and international fears in case Hamas will have the ability to form the next cabinet after the elections. All over the PA reports continue to predict the demise of the Fateh Movement and the phenomenal growth of Hamas.
Hamas intends, if the trend continues in their favor, to back a government of technocrats from outside Hamas in order to allow economic aid into the PA to continue to flow. Europe and the USA might as a result reassess their uncompromising rejection to deal with a Hamas lead PLC. These important ideological and political developments in a way reflect Mahmoud Abbas vision of the transformation of Hamas from a radical organization into a political party.
The National Economy
The Palestinian economy, despite the tremendous yearly growth of 7%, still cannot cover the obligation of the PA. In 2005, the budgeting deficit has grown tremendously (over 600 million dollars), and the departing World Bank representative Nigel Roberts criticized the PA for raising salaries and adding more people to the civil servants roll.
After the elections the PA not only needs to freeze employment in the government sector, it needs to encourage civil servants to leave government employment and become entrepreneurs. This objective needs guidance and training and investment in human resources. It is estimated that the creation of additional jobs costs $30,000 per person and this is the approach that the Palestinian Authority should carry in order to remove the huge burden of unarmed civil servants in its roll.
Law and Order
Mahmoud Abbas this month, by the end of January elections, will have to face the most important test of his rule. The Palestinian public, even before the world community, is demanding that he concentrate all his efforts in restoring law and order so that people can feel that they are safe. The PA effort should start by hitting hard, at first, on small armed gangs that claim to be part of the President’s party; this will lead other larger armed groups to sense that finally the PA is serious about removing arms from the public and upholding the respect of the rule of law.
President Abbas will be scrutinized by first his people, the Israeli public and government and the world community for signs that Abbas is serious. Abbas has to cross this bridge otherwise he will lose his ability to govern democratically.
Strawberry Exports
Although so far, the Jim Wolfensohn team has failed to bring into the PA the big bucks, it seems that donors are all postponing substantial economic until after the elections, yet the arrangements done by Wolfensohn to expedite the marketing and export of the major winter crop from Gaza, strawberries have been successful and the largest ever since strawberries were planted in Gaza.
But despite the economic success in Gaza as a result of the exports, the Paris economic protocol is in grave danger. The lack of discipline that led to the death of two Egyptian border-policemen and the breach of the wall that marks the border between Gaza and Egypt next to the Rafah passageway, has lead Israel to threaten that the Karni & Erez crossing points from Gaza into Israel would be transformed into international crossing points. If this happens, as defense minister Mofaz declared, it would bring to an end the last and most durable vestige of the Oslo process, the Paris economic protocol that still governs the economic relations between Israel and the PA.
As a result, the economic relations in Gaza will differ from those in the West Bank, were the common custom envelope is still being implemented, but which will mean that a new economic accord would have to be negotiated, a free trade arrangement might ensue instead of the present common custom envelope.
Fair Play in the Elections
The international monitors are flocking in; a sour taste is still being felt by independent candidates in 1996 despite the pressure of the monitors, Fateh played with the result of the elections at the expense of the independents.
In the recent Fateh primaries, cheating was the norm and this created tension within the various Fateh groups. Some government officials have boosted that whatever the official result of the election, Hamas will not get more than 27% of the seats. Fraud is expected, however, with all the parties contesting this election, independents feel that fraud can be prevented.
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[[ Jerusalem Times : Opinion ]]
January 8, 2006
This Week in Palestine…Behind the News with Hanna Siniora
Elections
The election campaign is in full swing in Palestine; all the national lists have launched their campaigns on both the national proportional level and in the local districts. The local newspapers are full of advertisement wooing the voters to vote for the various national lists and to local candidates.
The local media, especially the three main dailies, for the first time in many years are covering the cost and shoring up their financial standing. The local graphic designers and print shops are flourishing too. Yet, despite all of that, with the campaign ongoing, there is still doubt that the January 25 elections will take place.
The main issue remaining is if Jerusalemites in east Jerusalem will be able to vote freely and without interference from the Israeli authorities. Already candidates have been briefly arrested, intimidated and their rallies stopped. The Shin-Bet Israeli Intelligence Service have told most of the candidates in east Jerusalem that they cannot advertise their campaigns or post posters in the Arab streets of east Jerusalem.
It is a stark picture compared with the campaign paraphernalia in West Bank and Gaza cities; the thirty-nine candidates for the six seats in East Jerusalem do not have the ability to reach their voters and the ability to acquaint and inform their constituencies about their platforms and position. This issue has to be resolved fast; otherwise it would be ample ammunition for calling off the elections.
Another equally sore issue is that less than a couple of thousand voters are registered to vote in Jerusalem out of more than 120,000 who theoretically have the right to vote. The Central Elections Committee and the PA should resolve this point by allowing the voters carrying blue identity cards as East Jerusalem residents to vote by showing their ID cards and not by the voter registration roll. This is an internal Palestinian Issue and decision, but it should not be left to the last minute and create conflict between the public, the PA and the Central Election Committee. In previous elections, the identity cards were allowed and voters’ hands were marked with indelible ink to prevent cheating. This is what should happen now as well.
Internal & International Political Developments
The majority in the Central Fateh Committee recommended to President Abbas the postponement of the elections, if East Jerusalemites are not allowed freely to campaign and vote. Abbas was and remains adamant that the PLC elections should take place according to schedule. Some believe that the internal disputes within the Fateh movement and the fear of defeat at the polls led many Fateh leaders, foremost PM Ahmed Qurei, to recommend postponement if East Jerusalemites are prevented from voting. Hamas and those who look for change are determined to see the elections taking place on time.
Despite the obstacles that Israel is introducing, and with PM Sharon fighting literally for his life and in an induced coma, it seems that acting PM Olmert has so far been unable to take a decision on the Jerusalem issue. Israeli Foreign Minister Shalom has been calling openly that Palestinians in East Jerusalem should not be allowed to vote. The Israeli intelligence service has already begun effectively preventing the conducting of the PLC elections, in a similar manner to the 1996 campaign.
The international community, Bush, Blair, Solana, Putin, and the Arab countries are urging the Israeli authority to allow the election process to advance in a similar manner to what was agreed upon by the cabinet of Yitzhak Robin in 1996. So far, it is impossible to assess the outcome of this international approach, Ehud Olmert has to come out with a political decision immediately.< |
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