December 3, 2006
This Week in Palestine … Behind the News with Hanna Siniora
After months if not years of political stagnation, suddenly following the U.S. midterm elections, noticeable movement is taking shape from Afghanistan to Palestine. The ceasefire that was announced a few days back, although fragile and precarious is still holding. In order for the ceasefire to take roots, it is imperative even critical that it will be extended to cover the West Bank. Israel has to stop arrests and targeted killings in the West Bank to prevent the collapse of the ceasefire.
In Latvia the NATO command has called for the withdrawal of NATO forces by 2008. if and when a democratic administration will succeed the Bush administration, a similar call to withdraw American troops by 2010 if not earlier will be announced by such a new administration. A Democratic party president in the White House will be obliged to make such an announcement if he or she seeks a second term. The Baker-Hamilton commission by this week, might announce similar steps. Even in Somalia, the international community will have to the local leadership on the ground.
In Palestine it is apparent and beyond doubt that the Hamas movement has won the first round, is well entrenched and deepening its roots politically, socially and economically. In two years President Mahmoud Abbas term of office will end, and so far, Abbas is adamant that he is not running for a second term. Fateh chance of keeping its hold on the top job is in convincing Abbas to seek a second term, the only other candidate for Fateh to keep the presidency is in Israeli custody, in prison, Marwan Barghouti.
Fateh must insist in the coming prisoner exchange that PLC-elect Marwan Barghouti be released, otherwise if Abbas and Barghouti are out of the election picture two years from now, Hamas has the ability to win the top job. Legislative elections are only three years distant and so far the Fateh party has not announced the date of its sixth Fateh convention to elect its new Central Committee and proceed on internal reform process. So far the Old Guard, the oligarchs of Fateh are reluctant to allow new blood to come to power and if this scenario continues three years from now when new legislative elections will take place, Hamas might achieve a more resounding victory.
Islamic Parties – The Wassatiyeh Party
Previously the younger voters and political aspirants in order to rise politically and achieve power joined leftist parties and movements. The Palestinian political scene was dominated by secular political parties like Fateh, Popular Front, Democratic Front, Fida and the Communist Party. These trends do not exist any more, not in Palestine, the Arab countries or the Islamic world.
Nowadays the trend is to vote for Islamic parties. In 2006, Hamas won an overwhelming majority and formed the government in Palestine. In Egypt, the Moslem Brotherhood achieved significant gains and became the second biggest party in Egypt after the government party. In other Arab and Islamic countries, future free democratic elections will in the next few years bring a green political maps, I mean Islamic parties will have the upper hand as they are in ascendancy because of the corruption of nationalistic secular, leftist parties.
From now it is important to encourage, anticipating the popular trend, moderate Islamic parties to organize in order to reach power or to provide the balance of power to prevent radical parties from controlling the destiny of the region. In Palestine, many devout observant Palestinians of the Moslem faith, believe it is the right time to back a rival to Hamas, that would navigate the political mid-team. The Holy Koran, talks of Wassatiyeh in Islam, and that the Islamic world is a middle road and not a radical faith. As such, many aspire to see in Palestine and elsewhere in the Arab and Islamic world the rise of a Wassatiyeh party, an Islamic party that can attract significant numbers of voters, and reflect a positive Islamic trend appealing to the international image.
The time is now for such an Islamic movement to grow roots in Palestine to contest the next election representing the moderate voice of Islam and to network with similar forces in the Arab and Islamic countries.
In the recent elections in Palestine, new secular parties and old leftist parties garnered less than eight percent of the vote and seats in parliament. One reason is that most of these parties lost public appeal, and the new ones although advertised heavily but did not grow roots and will not have much of a future in the next elections. Unfortunately, trends are overpowering and to be able to have political clout, it is necessary to pay attention to the rise of Islamic parties, yet at the same time to provide an appealing alternative to existing political forces in Palestine. The Wassatiyeh movement in Palestine should work hard to win the hearts and minds of the electorate and it is not too early to start its campaign to get the recognition it deserves.
Deadlocked Unity Talks
President Abbas again declared that the internal dialogue with Hamas has reached a dead end. PM Ismail Haniyeh, who is on a two-week tour of Arab and Islamic countries, his first since becoming prime minister, denies the impasse and is in favour of a national unity government even if it costs him his job.
Abu Mazen convened the PLO executive committee and will soon announce what measures he is about to take, speculation goes from the dismissal of the Haniyeh cabinet to early elections. It should be clearly noted that such extreme steps would not be accepted by Hamas, previously it was clearly mentioned that this would lead to an internal civil war, now an additional casualty would be the ceasefire. This is why Abbas would probably hesitate, like in the past, from taking a decisive action.
Recently at an-Najah University in Nablus, the elections to the student council resulted in a tie between Hamas who was previously in control of the student council and Fateh, who gained additional seats. Like Hamas and Fateh this led to turmoil within the university and forced the administration to lock the gates for a few days. A compromise took place which led to alternating the presidency of the student council between Fateh and Hamas and tensions were dissipated and the university resumed its functions.
Something similar might be the wisest course for Hamas and Fateh to adopt at a national level. Allow Haniyeh to complete two years in office on the basis of the National Reconciliation agreement, two years later Fateh will take over the premiership on the same basis. In the meantime, Fateh will work to implement internal reform, to be able to win the next elections. The politicians this time should take their cue from the students, allow feeling to cool, and help extend the ceasefire, and rebuild the economy.
Mr. Hanna Siniora is the Palestinian Co-CEO of IPCRI – the Israel/Palestine Center for Research and Information
